Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Luxembourg
  • Austria
  • Niger
  • Australia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,203.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,203.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(18.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-06-04

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,913$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,232.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,232.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,921$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(412 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,893.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,893.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $392$ on 2020-06-04

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,013$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,947.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(227,947.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,689$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,615.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(32,615.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,429$ on 2020-06-04

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,872,660$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,850,769.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,850,769.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108,211$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,106.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106,106.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,279,447$ on 2020-06-04

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $283,079$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,829.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(281,829.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,987$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,073.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(38,073.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $241,873$ on 2020-06-04

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,883$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,458.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 63.2)}}\) (asimptote \(42,458.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,562$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(512 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,483.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,483.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,321$ on 2020-06-04

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $184,472$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,114.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(176,114.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,635$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,373.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,373.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,928$ on 2020-06-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 99%
Croatia recovered 97%
Austria recovered 96%
Niger recovered 93%
Australia recovered 91%
Japan recovered 90%
Malta recovered 89%
Germany recovered 89%
Estonia recovered 89%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Andorra recovered 88%
Denmark recovered 84%
Morocco recovered 82%
Uruguay recovered 69%
Chad recovered 68%
Lithuania recovered 67%
Italy recovered 65%
Turkey recovered 62%
Georgia recovered 61%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 52%
San Marino recovered 52%
Jamaica recovered 50%
Serbia recovered 43%
Romania recovered 39%
Singapore recovered 38%
Qatar recovered 32%
Bulgaria recovered 26%
Kuwait recovered 21%
Saudi Arabia recovered 18%
Algeria recovered 10%
Canada recovered 2%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,027$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,874.6}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,874.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(29.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-06-04

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,805$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,900.2}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,900.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(161 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{642.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(642.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $418$ on 2020-06-04

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $963$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(376 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{918.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(918.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(72.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-06-04

Australia⮸

Population $25,499,884$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,247$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,914.1}{1 + 10^{-0.088 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,914.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(23.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(101.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $462$ on 2020-06-04